2021.
17 February 2020. https://www.thespacereview.com/article/3883/1; Woo, E. 2021. Approximately 11,000 satellites have been launched since Sputnik 1 in 1957, but 70,000 more could enter orbit in the coming decades if proposed plans play out.13 The vast majority of these new planned and approved satellites will be launched by a handful of operators that will have increasing influence over the regulatory landscape. China tests new space capability with hypersonic missile. Available: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/sputnik, G. Genta, Private Space Exploration: A New Way for Starting a Spacefaring Society?, Acta Astronautica, vol. The Conversation. Fax: 202-267-5450. While private-equity projects have grabbed most of the headlines in recent years, public-sector interest has also grown. Explore more about the cookies we use. Crowding and Competition in Space, Appendix A: Descriptions of Global Risks 2022, Appendix B: Executive Opinion Survey: National Risk Perceptions, Appendix C: Technical Notes: Global Risks Perception Survey 20212022. Rana, D., & Sharma, M. (2021). 20 May 2021. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/05/space-junk-clean-satellite/; Kwan, R. and Henley, J. 31 August 2020. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-america/2020-08-31/coming-revolution-intelligence-affairs, 32: Stutt, A. Receive weather forecasts? [Online]. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. And satellite mass production could decrease that cost from U.S.$500 million per satellite to U.S.$500,000. Historically, any endeavors, involving the term space, were perceived as operations undertaken by large government organizations with an emphasis on the scientific aspect, rather than a business one. China berates US after close encounters with Elon Musk satellites. Beyond the opportunities generated by satellite broadband Internet, the new frontiers in rocketry offer some tantalizing possibilities. [Online]. For example, governments will increasingly need to compete for talent, with private sector entities offering more lucrative employment packages. How space became the next great power contest between the U.S. and China. Commercial Space Transportation is working to meet the needs now and into the future by working with those involved in every facet of the commercial space industry including the next generation of rocket engineers and scientists. 2021. [Online]. 335354, Aug. 2002. Some governments are encouraging private space activity to further national territorial claims or to foster the development of high-value jobs, especially in the zone of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) or Medium Earth Orbit (MEO),i as well as enhancing their military or defense-oriented presence. Yet, the most significant short- and medium-term opportunities may come from satellite broadband Internet access. [Online]. Space junk hit the International Space Station, damaging a robotic arm. You can selectively provide your consent below to allow such third party embeds. Office of the Historian, Sputnik, 1957, , Foreign Service Institute, United States Department of State, n.d. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. hRKhQ=/c23@ aEcBA! [D-*& !;MB*"M;A0Aq&sw=. 7 July 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/07/technology/space-start-ups.html. 20 August 2021. https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/status-of-existing-and-emerging-asia-pacific-space-powers-capabilities/, 9: Buchs, R. 2021. EPFL. The investment implications for a more accessible, less expensive reach into outer space could be significant, with potential opportunities in fields such as satellite broadband, high-speed product delivery, and perhaps even human space travel. Near term, space as an investment theme is also likely to impact a number of industries beyond Aerospace & Defense, such as IT Hardware and Telecom sectors. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020.
[Online]. 2020. 2020. https://dri.thediplomat.com/report/2021-03/, 35: Scott, C. 2018. Available: https://doi.org/10.1787/c5996201-en, G. Autry, The next economic revolution just (re)launched: Congratulate SpaceX, thank NASA, Forbes, April 1, 2017. Although space represents yet another realm in which geopolitical and commercial tensions will play out, important traditions of cooperation in this arena should not be forgotten. Critically, and like other realms where technology is developing at a faster pace than its regulation, bringing private sector actors into the agreement processes will help ensure that such pacts reflect both commercial and technical realities. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. 2021. All Rights Reserved.Electronic ISSN: 2167-1907. Forty-one nations have registered space agencies with UNOOSA,38 yet the many governments not represented will continue to struggle to develop their capacities or earn a seat at the table in key decision-making processes. 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Applicability of the Liability Convention for Private Spaceflight. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2014.04.008, M. N. Sweeting, Modern Small Satellites - Changing the Economics of Space, Proceedings of the IEEE, vol. Here are few industry reports, reference materials, research papers, and journals from the subject matter experts, consulting firms, and academicians on the future of space technology, rise of the new space age, future of space research & development and way forward for the space economy. 66%)% KPMGs industry report on the future of the Space economy: https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2020/12/the-future-of-the-space-economy.html. Service disruption and environmental unknowns: Consequences for people. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. Export Controls for the Commercial Space Industry, The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation 2017, The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2016, The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2014, The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2013, The 2012 Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation, The 2015 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts, The 2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts, Commercial Space Transportation: 2011 Year in Review, January 2012, Year in Review Fact Sheet, CY 2011, January 2012, Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). Its been nearly half a century since humans left footprints on the moon and during that time human space exploration has largely centered on manned low-Earth orbit missions and unmanned scientific exploration. Defence agencies will need to continue to expend resources to defend against more-sophisticated space-based weaponry and increasingly effective space-based tools of statecraft, such as enhanced surveillance or espionage. Reuters.1 December 2021. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-hypersonic-weapon-arms-race-with-china-air-force-secretary-2021-11-30/; Reuters. Space debris by the numbers. [Online]. [Online]. SERvO euN endstream endobj 9289 0 obj <>stream 2021. 28: Goguichvili, Linenberger and Gillette. 2021. Today, development of reusable rockets may provide a similar turning point. We think of reusable rockets as an elevator to low Earth orbit (LEO), says Morgan Stanley Equity Analyst Adam Jonas. The billionaire space race launches a new venture capital solar system. hTmo0+q-BVji+$(1Sw^2-pN!3g D`8xbhM*FZR"*"?Di TQ(( :=eI?l0eUs[6u'`yB},=;e9hHDH,}@p?b `9g|+:'a[7$UeI(aQ:rb{nuL8b*Y-rY+[TH]CUo?xd?p'jUkv[)np[yV8p0?twtI48&VagRJY\)"JRZPe6EYFXY Available: https://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/history/timeline/80s-decade.html, National Aeronautics and Space Administration. However, this may result in some functions no longer being available. 2021.Military Competition, New Technologies, and Space. 11 February 2020. https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/coming-battle-for-spectrum, 24: See, e.g., U.S. Office of the Vice-President. 32, no. The coming revolution in intelligence affairs. 1 June 2021. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/01/world/iss-orbital-debris-robotic-arm-scn/index.html, 18: Hyde, J. L., Christiansen, E.L. and Lear, D.M. Artemis Mission. The global race to mine outer space. 24 December 2021. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-conducts-test-launch-hypersonic-missile-interfax-2021-12-24/, 31: Vinci, A. 29: Gabbat, A. Observations of MMOD Impact Damages to the ISS. As commercial activity in space grows, more companies could crop up seeking entry while investor interest is high. Available: https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investing-in-space, Copyright (c) 2021 Damini Rana; Dr. Mritunjay Sharma. 16 September 2021. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rebeccaszkutak/2021/09/16/the-billionaire-space-race-launches-a-new-venture-capital-solar-system/?sh=74f837e7482e, 40: Khodairy, S., Sharaf, M., Awad, M., Hamed, R.A. and Hussein, M. 2020. Renewed space rivalry between nations ignores a tradition of cooperation. For example, the Outer Space Treaty prohibits nuclear weapons in space but does not address conventional weapons, which is particularly worrisome in todays context of conventional weapons development and testing in space. Look out below: What will happen to the space debris in orbit? McKinsey & Company. The New York Times. Available: http://www.fullertreacymoney.com/system/data/files/PDFs/2017/October/4th/space%20-%20the%20next%20investment%20frontier%20-%20gs.pdf, Large LEO satellite constellations: Will it be different this time? McKinsey Quarterly, May 4, 2020. [Online]. [Online]. 3, March 2018. Accessed: Oct. 25, 2020.
[Online]. At the FAA we are always looking for new ways that our user community can access the data we collect. Russian anti-satellite test adds to worsening problem of space debris. Powers such as China, the European Union, France, Germany, India, Japan, NATO, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States have publicly announced space forces and continue to build space infrastructure, with plans for at least five new space stations by 2030 in the works.5 The first commercial space station is also slated for completion in the next decade.6 Next-step deep space exploration projects are under development, such as the United States-led Artemis programmewhich aims to reopen exploration of the Moon and eventually develop outposts on Mars and asteroids.7 In addition, new space-faring powers will emerge as more economies begin to see opportunities to expand both geopolitical and commercial influence in this arena. Satellite technology is the short answer. h233U0PwwI-LNu)J+.H,JK,Hw//-0 wI6 endstream endobj 9287 0 obj <>stream United States Space Priorities Framework. 1 December 2021. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/United-States-Space-Priorities-Framework-_-December-1-2021.pdf, 25: Marshall W. and Hadfield, C. 2021. [Online]. 480-486, Nov. 2014. rtUP7(cACTPN$$T|ear4$*E*C^LIJ+)Vle*#W]r,_9KxWsIJ`Wym08:9E" ;p&bxO1`x~N|1l6}_~&xrY'v>>Ua{{13U_mL}vm~_gwWL5cVnKl|7nj",h"(YXx5&Om1*vE*Bi{kyKEV8TCZFEif72B;*`#At{eqdE-_jKWuL8_yTJm_fdx8d:^Iy.T}6o>juG7Vpt1/sC]>m/v=Mr-vx+-Y.K=X6ewq^==Q1v~#h1d2 AkY&5Z8FK'gHF/fso.okmqGJJF2Ew=|wy/Ed[ov)O-h_7582t%P&fYYe2fLl\o3qs@xG'x0?Y.$UTXBe^Z-1w. 6dq15@R-i4/.a%,\uK-U{{>Y\bG#x_D7,h2j#E;8bz"'~#j@(,'z|0 [Online]. Accessed on: Oct. 30, 2020. Accessed on: Mar. 16 October 2021. https://www.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719b-4040-93cb-a486e1f843fb; Stone, M. 2021. 2021. While this trend could continue, more robust formal governance will be required in a more crowded and competitive space. [Online]. We believe the largest opportunity comes from providing Internet access to under- and unserved parts of the world, but there also is going to be increased demand for bandwidth fromautonomous cars, theInternet of Things, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, and video.. Mining.com. Why the U.S. and China should collaborate in space. #SpaceWatchGL Opinion: James Webb Space Telescope astronomy and our best selves. A:.rTGh$Aw^QT}:\)) kP&3eDrf . 10 January 2019. https://theconversation.com/renewed-space-rivalry-between-nations-ignores-a-tradition-of-cooperation-108810, 26: Goguichvili, S., Linenberger, A. and Gillette, A. Young, In Spite of Elon Musk, SpaceXs Valuation Has Surged 122,233% Since 2002, CNN, Dec. 7, 2019. March 2021. Refreshing Resilience: From COVID-19 Lessons to a Whole-of-Society Response, Schwab Foundation for Social Entrepreneurship, Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, https://www.ft.com/content/138b3f58-cdad-484f-b180-ce0b96bb7028, https://www.thespacereview.com/article/3883/1, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/07/technology/space-start-ups.html, https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investing-in-space, https://www.mining.com/the-global-race-to-mine-outer-space/, https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/nov/15/us-investigating-debris-event-space-reports-russia-anti-satellite-weapon-test, https://www.space.com/tiangong-space-station, https://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/2021/07/14/growth-of-space-and-lunar-stations-promise-amidst-geopolitical-risk/, https://espi.or.at/publications/espi-public-reports/category/2-public-espi-reports, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/status-of-existing-and-emerging-asia-pacific-space-powers-capabilities/, https://www.epfl.ch/research/domains/irgc/spotlight-on-risk-series/intensifying-space-activity-calls-for-increased-scrutiny-of-risks/, https://www.techtimes.com/articles/260823/20210529/spacexs-competitors-claims-elon-musk-monopolize-space-starlink-constellation-unsustainable.htm, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/24/us/politics/trump-biden-pentagon-space-missiles-satellite.html, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/look-out-below-what-will-happen-to-the-space-debris-in-orbit, https://spacenews.com/china-is-developing-plans-for-a-13000-satellite-communications-megaconstellation/, https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/jeff-bezos-plant-private-raumstation-orbital-reef-etwas-kleiner-als-die-iss-a-1779efd7-6ee6-4c92-9986-7fc996951e8f, https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/soa_2021.pdf, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02167-5, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/01/world/iss-orbital-debris-robotic-arm-scn/index.html, https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20190033989, https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_Debris/Space_debris_by_the_numbers, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/05/space-junk-clean-satellite/, https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/dec/28/china-complains-to-un-after-space-station-is-forced-to-move-to-avoid-starlink-satellites, https://theconversation.com/the-outer-space-treaty-has-been-remarkably-successful-but-is-it-fit-for-the-modern-age-71381, https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/coming-battle-for-spectrum, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/United-States-Space-Priorities-Framework-_-December-1-2021.pdf, https://time.com/5954941/u-s-china-should-collaborate-in-space/, https://theconversation.com/renewed-space-rivalry-between-nations-ignores-a-tradition-of-cooperation-108810, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/global-legal-landscape-space-who-writes-rules-final-frontier, https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59307862, https://www.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719b-4040-93cb-a486e1f843fb, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-hypersonic-weapon-arms-race-with-china-air-force-secretary-2021-11-30/, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-conducts-test-launch-hypersonic-missile-interfax-2021-12-24/, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-america/2020-08-31/coming-revolution-intelligence-affairs, https://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwsite=RPS_EN-PROD&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&document=PROD0000000000521006, https://dri.thediplomat.com/report/2021-03/, https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46260959, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/gps-is-easy-to-hack-and-the-u-s-has-no-backup/, https://aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2018-05/RocketEmissions_0.pdf, https://www.space.com/space-solar-power-research-advances, https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/space-agencies.html, https://www.forbes.com/sites/rebeccaszkutak/2021/09/16/the-billionaire-space-race-launches-a-new-venture-capital-solar-system/?sh=74f837e7482e, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1523/1/012010/pdf, Chapter 1. Once in orbit, and unless actively decommissioned, many of these satellites could remain in space for hundreds of years.14 Smaller, low-cost satellites are also proliferating because of lower costs and fewer barriers to entry.15 While the risk is still relatively low, an increase in the number of satellites also increases the opportunity for collisions, or, at the least, a need to engage in emergency maneuvers to avoid contact. (H@5:Vh7YS]xr}vw+v2i=KCSz. Space: Science & Technology. Morgan Stanley estimates that the global space industry could generate revenue of U.S.$1.1 trillion or more in 2040, up from U.S.$350 billion, currently. of. [Online]. PwCs report on main trends & challenges in the space sector: United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs Space Economy Initiative outcome report: The Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) report on Chinas Commercial Space Sector: CNBCs article on Space Industry with Bank of America: Deloittes report on New Zealand Space Economy: https://www.pwc.fr/fr/assets/files/pdf/2020/12/en-france-pwc-main-trends-and-challenges-in-the-space-sector.pdf, https://www.unoosa.org/documents/pdf/Space%20Economy/Space_Economy_Initiative_2020_Outcome_Report_Jan_2021.pdf, https://www.ida.org/-/media/feature/publications/e/ev/evaluation-of-chinas-commercial-space-sector/d-10873.ashx, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/02/why-the-space-industry-may-triple-to-1point4-trillion-by-2030.html, https://www.beehive.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2019-11/Deloitte%20NZ%20Space%20Economy%20Report.pdf. Currently the global space industry is approximately $400 billion, about 80% is commercial activity and the United States claims a little less than half of that commercial activity. Deloittes analysis on the tech trends from the Space perspective: https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/public-sector/articles/government-space-tech-trends.html. This is just one of the many functions of commercial space transportation. Stay tuned as we continue to innovate and meet the growing demand for information about this exciting industry! Forbes. Accessed on Oct. 25, 2020. In the coming weeks, the FAA will be posting data files from the compendium for public use. Official websites use .govA .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. *dDNprI1?JYiUXU&DeDz~`Kx&m45xKd} 3xN nMA9o{vL5> U$W$}wzHrG\f#x>imp2mWk J@m@QC]PUr-s+C+}JjwRpet83?xoM5Y&mCv]zu1q # qF74?_05Nn3ONba|-NrdP`9rXpI=G0?#M:Dp\xI{ cZ_,^6v 2jM3Mkgzf+S~ 0 < New addenda may be needed to clarify when space law should supersede aviation law.22 Even the most robust governance realm, electromagnetic spectrum management, which is governed by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), faces serious crowding pressures with new satellite systems and increased competition in the terrestrial spectrum usage of emerging 5G technologies.23. 2021. endstream endobj 2783 0 obj <. Available: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hubble/story/index.html, A. F. G. Brown, Accidents, Engineering, and History at NASA 1967-2003, Ph.D. dissertation. 866.835.5322 (866-TELL-FAA)Contact Us, United States Department of Transportation, Aviation Safety Draft Documents Open for Comment, Airport Coronavirus Response Grant Program, Legislation & Policies, Regulations & Guidance, Certificated Remote Pilots including Commercial Operators, Recreational Flyers & Modeler Community-Based Organizations, FAA's STEM Aviation and Space Education (, The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation 2018, Introduction to U.S. Financial Times. Available: https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/, A. Chaikan, Is SpaceX changing the rocket equation? Air & Space Magazine, Jan. 2012. Deutsch Bank. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. 15 April 2021. https://time.com/5954941/u-s-china-should-collaborate-in-space/; Shackelford, S. 2019. The New Final Frontier: A Case Study Analysis of Private Sectors Increasing Role in the Space Industry. But roughly 20 years later, every multistory building in New York, Boston, and Chicago was constructed around a central elevator shaft. Accessed on: Jan. 10, 2020. The flights, planned for 2019, would be the first time that the U.S. has flown manned missions to the ISS, since the shuttle program was retired in 2011.