(Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. He isnt so sure about Biden. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . 'I Should Start Voting'. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. Vance. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Im not happy with the way things are now. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. He didnt vote in 2016 either. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. He loves this country. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. 2016 Trump. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Jacobs said she absolutely intends to vote in person on Nov. 3. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. The morale of the people up there is bad. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. What you need to know, summarized in one email. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC I dont watch TV. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. Its just not that great, Paul said. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. Youre not getting anybody perfect. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. Please read our comments policy before commenting. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive Theres significant variability among them, though. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. He considers Trump pro-life. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. March 1, 2023 8:28 PM PT. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. Here's why. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. Peoples common sense level is cooked. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. Farming also is huge here. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. We have become so divided. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. But according to the. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. People need to get a job, get out and work. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. He cares about the American people.. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Right now, its horrible. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. Pre-performance Lobby events. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. Your email address will not be published. A lot of people think things are. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. I kind of keep in my bubble. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building.